Shares of US-based copper giant Freeport-McMoRan climbed 3.75% to $47.30 in premarket trading on Wednesday, as investors reacted to a new 50% tariff on imported copper announced by former President Donald Trump.
The tariff, set to take effect from August 1, is part of a broader push to reshore strategic metals production to the United States.
JPMorgan analysts added further momentum to the stock, calling Freeport-McMoRan their “top pick” for copper exposure in a new research note.
The bank raised its price target on the stock to $56 from $42, reflecting nearly 23% upside from its last close.
Scotiabank too increased its PT to $52 per share from $48, maintaining the stock at ‘sector outperform’.
Stifel Canada initiated a buy rating on Freeport-McMoRan at $56 PT.
Trump’s national security case for copper
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the tariff decision followed a national security assessment and would ensure adequate domestic supply of a material critical to defense and high-tech infrastructure.
“Copper is necessary for semiconductors, aircraft, ships, ammunition, data centers, lithium-ion batteries, radar systems, missile defense systems, and even hypersonic weapons, of which we are building many,” Trump wrote.
He described copper as the second-most-used material by the US Department of Defense.
The move comes amid an aggressive tariff push by the president, who previously doubled import duties on steel and aluminum in early June.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC that the administration intends to align copper tariffs with other metals and boost domestic production capacity, though he acknowledged the transition will take time.
Copper prices spike in the US, creating global divergence
Copper futures rose 2.62% on Wednesday, extending gains from a dramatic 13.12% surge the previous session—its largest single-day increase since 1989.
However, global pricing dynamics revealed a widening disconnect.
Three-month benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.63% to $9,630.50 per ton in early Singapore trading.
Analysts say the US copper market could soon trade at a $5,000-per-ton premium to global prices, with domestic buyers potentially paying as much as $15,000 per ton by August, compared with around $10,000 globally, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
The US imports nearly half the copper it consumes, most of it from Chile.
Trump’s tariff move is likely to create both short-term supply pressures and long-term investment shifts in the domestic mining sector.
Why are analysts bullish on Freeport-McMoRan?
JPMorgan’s bullish call on Freeport-McMoRan centers on its strategic position and operational efficiency.
JPM analysts said in a research note that they continue to favour copper within the base metals complex “on expectations of forthcoming supply shortfalls and strong electrification trends globally.”
With 2025 sales guidance of 4.0 billion pounds of copper and net cash costs of $1.65 per pound, Freeport-McMoRan is well-positioned to benefit from rising prices.
A $0.25 per pound increase in copper prices could translate to an estimated $1 billion in additional operating cash flow annually, according to the company’s projections.
Gold production, estimated at 1.6 million ounces in 2025, provides an additional revenue stream that supports financial stability.
The company’s debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 underscores its disciplined capital structure.
Should you buy FCX?
While copper remains a volatile commodity, analysts remain optimistic about Freeport-McMoRan’s fundamentals.
MarketBeat cited the miner’s low-cost operations and strategic market position as key factors that underpin its blue-chip status.
“While all mining stocks carry inherent risks tied to commodity price volatility, Freeport-McMoRan’s mix of market leadership, cost discipline, and financial fortitude makes it a premier blue-chip company,” MarketBeat said.
The company holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating from Wall Street analysts, and its PEG ratio of 0.84 indicates attractive value relative to projected earnings growth.
Still, experts caution that building new mining capacity in the US will take time and sustained policy support.
Until then, domestic consumers may face higher input costs as global markets adjust to US trade policies.
“For investors looking for direct and meaningful exposure to the long-term copper narrative, FCX presents a compelling, fundamentals-driven case,” said MarketBeat.
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